Owl -Global Trend Watch

 

Owls are long-sighted and generally solitary creatures. Epic Tomorrows require many owl-like humans, picking up on global trends and reporting back to E.T. These trends are watched with entrepreneurs and activists in mind.

Trends relevant to the response-abilities of Epic Tomorrows:

General:

Full Fact ‘The UK’s Independent Fact Checking Charity’

Globescan Sustainability Leaders Report 2017: assessing who are the leaders in ‘sustainable development’ (just one perspective)

Post Carbon Institute preparing individuals for the rest of the 21st Century

Union of Concerned Scientists: attempting to lead the way on sustainability issues in America. According to Richard Heinberg, if the drive for Powerdown i.e. the controlled relocalisation of culture and end of fossil fuel dependency, doesn’t happen in North America, it will be hard for it to happen anywhere. Canada and America use the most energy per head of population compared to any other large industrial nation (including the European nations.)

Vital Signs Online / Worldwatch Institute: amalgamated environmental trends

 

Age Groups:

Millenials definition // Millenials and activism in the USA: 2017 report

 

Biodiversity:

Living Planet Index: tracking global biodiversity

IUCN Red List Index: list of endangered species

Biodiversity Indicators Partnership: developing / delivering biodiversity indicators

 

Black Swan Events:

‘A Black Swan event is an event in human history that was unprecedented and unexpected at the point in time it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: “it was bound to happen’ -from Black Swan Events

 

Climate Change:

Accurate climate change model

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

NASA

Wartime Mobilisation (USA based)

 

Consumer Trends:

trendwatching.com

 

 

Economic Inequality:

Forbes Billionaires List (global and constantly updated)

Inequality.org A truly excellent resource for tracking global economic inequality

 

Economic Systems (alternatives):

1) Sharing Economy:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/the-sharing-economy-could-help-end-poverty-here-s-how/

 

Energy:

1) Fossil fuels:

A) Oil:

Peak Oil, by Richard Heinberg

Peak Oil Barrel

B) Gas:

C) Coal:

D) Divestment Strategy:

Zero Carbon Britain strategy 2017 produced by the Centre for Alternative Technology

 

 

2) Renewables: 

Renewables cannot replace fossil fuels (opinion / article)

The Third Industrial Revolution Jeremy Rifkin, an economic adviser to the EU and China, argues that a global shift to a renewables based infrastructure is possible, if achieved within the relevant timeframe (i.e. ‘very soon!’). In his compelling, although questionable vision, the coming end of the global fossil fuel infrastructure does not have to mean the end of a globally interconnected industrial civilisation. His vision is based on community-owned food production and community-owned microrenewables which feed back into a balancing global renewable energy internet, interdependent with an ‘internet of things’. Rifkin’s vision also depends upon accelerating the current not-for-profit ‘sharing economy’ sector of the global capitalist economy, potentially normalising a new kind of not-for-profit capitalism. Rifkin’s vision can arguably be classed as a Relocal future, but still with large elements of technological and political centralisation.

 

3) Hydrogen:

Ironically, it is the big oil companies that may be the most driven to find alternatives to petroleum, as crude oil becomes increasingly scarce over the coming decades and there is a corresponding loss in oil-based profits. However, it must be remembered that hydrogen is an energy storer, not a primary source of energy. The hydrogen first has to be made, as the element doesn’t occur naturally on Earth, by electrolysis from electricity made by either fossil fuels or renewable energy sources. With a global population that is still growing, the increasing of energy demands to large energy infrastructures, even if renewables based, for the sake of our vehicles, may not be the right answer or sustainable. However, if hydrogen were to be made from sunlight and water, perhaps it could involve a much lighter infrastructure: hypersolar.com claims to have found a way to do this. Other hydrogen-based economy links below. But note, thus far, a hydrogen-based economy is at best a renewables-based economy. (See the quotes about renewables above).

The American Hydrogen Association

The Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association

Shell (on hydrogen)

 

Financial Markets:

Market Watch

 

Food Trends:

Globally, large-scale industrial agriculture, alongside feeding billions of people has destroyed habitats, exhausted topsoil, and pumped harmful levels of CO2, CH4 (methane) and N20 (nitrous oxide) into the atmosphere, which we have yet to experience the full effects of. Fossil fuels are also used unsustainably in the manufacture and transportation of foods, especially highly processed foods. In the words of the economist David Fleming, ‘The claim that centralised industrial agriculture is the only way of feeding a large population is about as scientific as a belief in Creationism’.

Additionally, the centralised industrial agriculture machine is responsible for pricing small-scale sustainable farmers out of markets, ruining their livelihoods and attempting to steal their sovereignty over diverse crop seeds.

Land Workers Alliance Fighting for the causes of small-scale farmers in the UK and the production of healthy food in the UK.

The Food People General trends in the global food industry, from a mainstream perspective

 

 

Forest Cover:

Global Forest Watch An excellent resource, with a constantly updated global map of forest cover which you can zoom right in on, which clearly marks gains and losses of forest cover.

 

Influential People, Lists:

How influential can individuals be? Which celebrities could be brought on board to raise awareness of the global crises now facing us?

Time Magazine most influential people 2018

 

Press Freedom and Objectivity:

We need more of it!

Media Lens

Reporters without Borders including a global press freedom index

 

Science and Ethics:

 

Software Innovation:

 

 

War Watch:

As pressures on finite resources increase this century, with the global population still increasing and the energy per capita use in China, India and Brazil increasing with the rise of the middle-classes in those countries, significant global conflict over resources is more than likely, to the level of WWII. This century. The main question for me is, how will opposing power blocks be formed, which countries will comprise them and how many ‘sides’ will there be. The likelihood of global war increases the urgency of the relocalisation imperative, which is to create resilient, self-sufficient communities.

Armed Conflict Database

foreignpolicy.com

Uppsala Conflict Data Program