Tag: IPCC

Well Hunted, Well Gathered directory excerpts #1: Existential Climate-related Security Risk plus Skeptical Science

For more information on the Well Hunted, Well Gathered directory of resources for climate and vegan(ish) activists visit this page.

1)

Existential climate-related security risk

Dunlop, I. and Spratt, D. (May 2019) Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration, Melbourne, Australia. info@breakthroughonline.org.au

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf

excerpt: ‘…to sustain human civilisation, it is essential to build a zero emissions industrial system very quickly. This requires the global mobilisation of resources on an emergency basis, akin to a wartime level of response.’

Epic Tomorrows’ review: Includes a forward by Admiral Chris Barrie, a member of the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change and Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002. This report is concise, very readable and relatively free from jargon. The gist of it is that IPCC projections (key data for the Climate COPs, the latest being COP25 in Madrid) are way too conservative, excluding or downplaying extreme scenarios for the sake of political consensus on action.

When the end of civilisation is at stake, Dunlop and Spratt argue that conventional risk management as done by organisations etc, becomes irrelevant. Risk management by responding to possibilities (by scenario planning) rather than high probabilities, could be the best way forward.

A 2050 scenario is then sketched. Based on scientific data the report argues that we could be looking at the collapse of global civilisation by 2050, due to ‘high-impact low probability warming’ of 3 degrees by this date, with 2 more degrees of warming locked in. This is the projected scenario if global emissions don’t peak until 2030 (which by my reckoning doesn’t seem that unlikely, looking at the latest Climate COP in Madrid, and with one of the worst global emitters, the USA, poised to leave the Paris Agreement. Even the Paris Agreement relies on unproven technologies!).  The 2050 scenario ultimate result…’a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end.’

In summary the report emphasises that security bodies (armies etc) are uniquely placed to mobilise and order the WWII level global infrastructure transformation that is needed to transition rapidly away from fossil fuel economies…Let us make sure that any military-led transformation of global energy infrastructures is decided democratically, with full co-operation of citizens globally, or what freedoms might be curtailed, and what human rights abuses may result? 

external review: https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/end-of-humanity-begins-in-2050-most-climate-change-models-too-conservative-report-6768451.html

activist strategy notes: Military and security force collaboration is key to the success of any revolutionary social movement, such as the one needed to force governments into WWII level mobilisation on the ecological and climate emergency. This could be a key text to persuade military personnel of the need for immediate action.

tactics: Try printing off this report and handing it to soldiers. I once trespassed into an army barracks with a megaphone to proclaim the climate emergency, but I didn’t have copies of this on me, unfortunately. Also try emailing this report to all military institutions in your country.

vegan dynamics: Consider what an urgent security forces-led mass transformation of agricultural systems from meat-based to plant-based would look like. Can you educate security forces now on plant-based agriculture as well as the ‘Existential….’ report?

life strategy notes: Bring a bit of ‘military organisation’ and toughness into your own life. Remain non-violent towards all life. (The window of a fossil-fuelled bank isn’t alive).

 

2)

https://skepticalscience.com/

-Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism

https://www.facebook.com/SkepticalScience

excerpt: ‘Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn’t what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?’

Epic Tomorrows’ review: The point is made on this site that genuine scientific skepticism is a good thing, and essential for the development of scientific understanding. However, man-made climate change denialism is not healthy skepticism. ‘Skepticism is a process, denial is a position’. 

The Skeptical Science site is based on peer-reviewed science, and although started as a blog is highly professional and has won awards for communication in climate science. A year or so ago, I would occasionally have severe doubts about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) after reading a particularly clever climate denialist paper. Returning to this site would always set me straight again.

The site is colourful, user-friendly and as light-hearted as possible whilst explaining serious science. It includes some graphics and pages that young adults may find fun (see the Best Sites for Young Adults list further down the page).

There is a regular feed of peer reviewed science articles on the front-page. The main climate myths (arguments used by AGW denialists) are listed conveniently down the left hand side of the front-page. There are ‘basic’, ‘intermediate’ and ‘advanced’ explanations of all myths.

Includes selected content in 24 other languages.

Key page on site: ’10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change’

external review: https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/millions-of-times-later-97-percent-climate-consensus-still-faces-denial/ (not a review as such, but a good endorsement of the team at Skeptical Science).

activist strategy notes: It’s obvious that any social movement that is attempting to transform government and public opinion, must be based on the soundest science and must be able to communicate this effectively i.e. must have an excellent media & messaging strategy. Messy communication will lead to a messy understanding and thus diluted support for a movement. As an activist I would advise getting your main climate science information from just a few high quality, regularly updated peer-reviewed websites. Less is more.

tactics: Throughout this directory there will be many references to Extinction Rebellion (XR) -the only social movement I have had extensive experience of so far. XR is a useful reference point for movements attempting to respond to the global climate (and general ecological) crisis. As with any movement, there’s good and there’s stuff to improve on. Regarding climate science communication, I was dismayed to see XR jump on the IPCC Paris Narrative (!) bandwagon of saying ‘We have 12 (now 11) years to turn things around’. This vague rhetoric is a sloppy departure from the original hard-hitting talk of XR and a massive dilution of XR’s message and therefore call for support. It leads the public to believe that we will all be okay if we follow the IPCC’s recommendations, which is not actually XR’s position at all. Poor tactic!

vegan dynamics: https://skepticalscience.com/animal-agriculture-meat-global-warming.htm

life strategy notes: Don’t have too much science in your life. Get some art!

 

?You Gather? -Vegan and Climate Activism (for Heroines and Heroes) #10

PHOTO BY GILLTUKHA/ISTOCK

Hello lovelies. Heroines, heroes, peaceful direct activists! Climate heroines, vegan heroes, rebels for Life.

I have finished the key entries in the first spreadsheet of my Well Gathered workbook which will be on sale in one month’s time. The first spreadsheet is a curated list of climate science and climate news websites. Here are the best of them:

LINKS ON FIRE!: Carbon Brief Climate Denial Crock of the Week CO2.earth DeSmogBlog Envisionation National Snow and Ice Data Center Paul Beckwith Skeptical Science

HOT LINKS!: AGW Observer Carbon Capture Report Climate Action Tracker Climate Bites ClimateChange.net Climate Feedback Climate Science Watch Climate Sight Global Snow Lab Grist Historical Climatology Inside Climate News IPCC NASA Paul Gilding Polar Research RealClimate The Daily Climate The Science of Doom Yale Climate Connections

And here is my guidance on how to use this particular spreadsheet within the workbook:

  1. THE PARIS NARRATIVE: The IPCC is a useful scientific body as a starting point for the interpretation of climate-related data. Their best-case target of a 1.5C limit to warming is sound. However their scenarios and literature downplay the fact that 3 degrees of warming (AGW) above pre-industrial levels (1750) is already baked in to the Earth System (barring an industrial miracle -see below), although it hasn’t fully unfolded yet. See the excellent Extinction Rebellion talk, ‘Heading for Extinction and what to do about it’. Thus all IPCC 1.5-2C scenarios and recommended pathways for governments rely on global-scale, unproven carbon reduction technologies (technologies that take CO2 out of the atmosphere). This unprecedented technological revolution, requiring unprecedented global co-operation, would need to happen within the next ten years, and there are no signs whatsoever of it happening… It is this narrative of ‘mass carbon reduction’ that defined the non-binding inter-governmental Paris Agreement of 2015. According to the ‘Paris Narrative’, all carbon dioxide emissions reductions pathways towards 1.5-2C rely on the science fiction of this massive and expensive industrial revolution. Beware the Paris Narrative!
  2. ACTION NOTES or HOW TO USE THIS SHEET FOR EPIC HEROINE & HERO ACTIVISTS!: For insight on how climate activism strategy relates to the wider Epic Tomorrows theory and strategy, please visit The Evidence. Use this sheet in the following ways. A) Nip your doubts in the buds, and calmly shoot your foes down in verbal flames. (See DENIAL BUSTERS sites in the spreadsheet) B) Get your facts straight, when talking to the media and engaging in NVDA / mass civil disobedience. C) Arm yourself for peaceful war with the knowledge in this spreadsheet. Your life quest to save all life on Earth depends on it. Do not overburden yourself with excessive knowledge. Choose your sites. Limit yourself. Less is more. Start with LINKS ON FIRE! Connect with others. Join Extinction Rebellion and associated movements. Eat less meat.

To get a FREE copy of this first spreadsheet in the workbook, just email me at epictomorrows@gmail.com

This week’s rebel listening isn’t hip-hop or dance music. For a nice change I have been listening to some baroque music, particularly Bach’s six unaccompanied cello suites. Very relaxing to have on whilst working. And as Yo Yo Ma says, Bach was very clever at composing in a way where the listener’s ear is used to complete musical phrases…notes are suggested as well as played, allowing the single cello to sound like more than just a single cello. Bach may have been very privileged, but to me his music sounds rebellious.

This relates to how it has felt with me on my internet searches of climate science -related websites and from today, climate activism sites. I feel like I am just on the edge of discovering melodies and harmonies in activism and in representations of climate science. This place of undiscovery or nearly-discovery feels like a very fertile place from which to direct my web searches. I am using this intuition, combined with some logic, to direct my searches. I know that some of you, the people I am meant to reach, will benefit from the results.

epictomorrows@gmail.com